This weekend, a large crowd is gathered at the Iowa State Fair, which includes various entertainment activities, a rodeo, and an annual tradition of sculpting a life-size butter cow since 1911. Similar to the Calgary Stampede in Canada, the Iowa State Fair serves as a significant platform for politicians to engage with voters, particularly during the approaching U.S. midterm elections.
One pressing issue among Iowans this year is the impact of President Donald Trump’s trade policies. According to Aaron Lehman, a fifth-generation family farmer and president of the Iowa Farmers Union, the trade war has caused confusion and hardship for local farmers. Many international customers have shifted their business away from the U.S. due to the unpredictable trade policies, affecting Iowa’s agricultural exports.
With Canada being Iowa’s largest export market, constituting 30% of the state’s total goods exports in 2025, the threat of Trump imposing 50% tariffs on numerous Canadian goods on August 19 poses a significant risk. Efforts are underway to negotiate a trade deal between the two countries, but as of now, an agreement remains elusive.
The economic uncertainties created by Trump’s policies have strained relationships with Iowa farmers, leading to heightened competition in the upcoming midterm elections. Recent polling data indicates a shift in favor of Democrats in key races, contrasting previous electoral outcomes that heavily favored Republicans.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer defended Trump’s tariff tactics during a recent visit to Iowa, emphasizing the administration’s commitment to enhancing American industry competitiveness through tariffs and tax cuts. However, some Iowa Republicans have expressed reservations about the trade policies, with indications of potential dissent within the party ranks.
Despite ongoing negotiations, the gap between Canada and the U.S. in reaching a tariff deal remains wide. The looming deadline and unresolved disagreements cast doubt on the prospects of an immediate resolution. Canadian officials are preparing for various scenarios, including potential concessions on sectoral tariffs and procurement rules, in response to Trump’s tariff threats. The situation is seen as critical, with the possibility of a breakdown in talks if the tariffs are imposed as scheduled on August 19.
