Three major Canadian banks provided positive economic outlooks on Thursday, contrasting with the concerns expressed by numerous small businesses amid a trade war with the United States. Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, and CIBC released their financial results before the Toronto Stock Exchange opened. Combined, these banking giants hold up to $6 trillion in assets, offering a significant perspective on the tariff impact with their extensive loan portfolios and cross-border client networks.
RBC CEO Dave McKay expressed optimism about the Canadian economy’s resilience, citing improvements in employment and GDP in the second quarter. TD Bank’s CEO Raymond Chun mentioned an upcoming “super cycle” of investment in Canada, driven by government spending on infrastructure and national defense projects totaling over $1 trillion. CIBC’s CEO, Harry Culham, expressed confidence in the latter half of 2026, emphasizing cautious monitoring of the evolving trade environment and labor market conditions.
A study by Oxford Economics for the Canadian American Business Council warned of potential job losses if the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) was terminated. BMO Capital Markets predicted a 0.5% reduction in Canadian growth due to the latest U.S. tariffs, primarily affecting business confidence and investment sentiment.
National Bank’s CEO Laurent Ferreira praised Canada’s economic resilience and applauded government initiatives, such as significant investment plans and aid measures for those affected by tariffs. He highlighted positive developments in energy, power infrastructure, and the icebreaker ship contract announcement in Quebec.
Bank of Montreal and Scotiabank CEOs separately deemed the Canada-U.S. trade war manageable. Despite economic uncertainties, Canadian bank stocks on the Toronto Stock Exchange have maintained strong performance, with the BMO Equal Weight Banks Index ETF surging nearly 50% in the past year.
