A joint military operation led by the United States and Israel targeting Iran has escalated multiple times since late February. Recent events have led to the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting around 15% of the global oil supply.
A recent report from The Economist suggests that the U.S. may not have achieved its intended outcomes by attacking Iran. The analysis indicates that Tehran is now making nearly double the daily revenue from oil sales compared to pre-Gulf conflict levels.
Iran is estimated to be exporting between 2.4 and 2.8 million barrels per day, similar to pre-war figures, but the key factor boosting profits is that each barrel is now priced 75% higher, expected to reach $104 per barrel within months.
China has emerged as the primary buyer of Iranian oil, accounting for over 90% of the purchases. Previously, smaller refineries received Iranian oil at discounted rates, but with reduced supply from other Gulf nations due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, Iran has been able to increase its prices.
Transactions involving Iranian oil are processed through shell companies and trust accounts based in China and Hong Kong, using fictitious names to transfer funds across multiple accounts to avoid detection.
The report raises concerns about the utilization of these funds, noting that oil revenues directly benefit the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), deeply involved in Iran’s oil sector. Approximately 20 influential figures control access to oil sales, minimizing chances of foreign interference.
The military alliance supports oil shipping by disabling tracking systems, falsifying locations, and other means. Vessels must obtain approval from the IRGC to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially paying substantial tolls, with individual shipments valued at up to $200 million.
